• How low can the ACC go?
• Boston College and Clemson
• Florida State and Maryland
• Va. Tech and UVa
• Miami and Ga. Tech
• UNC and Duke
2007 record: 9-4, 5-3 ACC
Returning starters: Offense 5, Defense 9.
Quarterback?: Yes. Riley Skinner (12 TDs, 13 INTs)
Avoid in the ACC: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, UNC
Coaching situation: Jim Grobe's 46-39 in seven seasons at Wake. After going 20-7 in the past two seasons, and winning the ACC title in 2006, Grobe decided to stay at Wake, despite multiple offers to leave, notably from Arkansas last December. He has given every reason to believe he's a lifer.
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Spring issues: The offensive line, a staple of Grobe's success in Winston-Salem, needs three new starters. The most important missing piece is All-American center Steve Justice (sixth-round pick). Trey Bailey, a fourth-year junior, gets the task of replacing Justice.
The left side of the line is new, too, which means even though quarterback Riley Skinner and leading rusher Josh Adams (953 yards, 11 TDs) are back, there will be an adjustment on offense, notably in the passing game.
Wake's quarterbacks completed 279 total passes, more than a third (98) went to the departed Kenny Moore (fifth-round pick). Sophomore Jordan Williams showed big-play potential in 2007, particularly against N.C. State with a 62-yard touchdown catch, but everyone is going to have to fill void on the short-range and intermediate routes.
While there are key pieces missing on offense, there aren few on a defense that returns nine starters, including senior corner Alphonso Smith, who led the ACC with eight interceptions, or special teams, where do-everything kicker/punter Sam Swank returns for his ninth season of college football.
What is new on defense is coordinator, where linebackers coach Brad Lambert succeeds Dean Hood, who left to take over at Eastern Kentucky.
Fall outlook: Let's state the obvious here: Jim Grobe is the best coach in the ACC, by a wide margin, and one of the 10 best in the country. It's impossible to overstate his ability to find players, develop them over a five-year period and prepare them on a weekly basis.
A testament to Grobe's ability — other than taking Wake to consecutive bowl games for the first time in the school's history — is in a 12-team league, Wake ranked sixth in total offense (93rd nationally) and sixth in total defense (27th nationally). Yet, the Deacs won nine of their final 11 games.
Why?
No. 1: They force turnovers. Only three teams in the country finished with more takeaways (35) in 2007.
No. 2: They have great special teams (see Swank, who was better '06 but still good in '07)
No. 3: They know how to win close games. Part of that is controlling the ball on offense, especially late in the game, and the Deacs ranked second in the country in time of possession.
No. 4: They're opportunistic. Wake scored eight defensive touchdowns and two more on special teams. Those are "free" points and the difference between 10-point losses and three-point wins.
Now, you need talent to create big plays, which Wake has, but you can't count on them as a regular part of the game plan. And as Phil Steele argues, with the aid of statistics, turnovers have a way of leveling out from year-to-year.
Even without an inordinate amount of "free" plays, and a new offensive line, the Deacs will be good enough to win at least eight games. If not for Clemson, they could play in the ACC title game.
2007 record: 5-7, 3-5 ACC
Returning starters: Offense 6, Defense 4.
Quarterback?: Maybe. Daniel Evans (12 TDs, 13 INTs), Harrison Beck (2 TDs, 9 INTs)
Avoid in the ACC: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, UVa
Coaching situation: Tom O'Brien couldn't be much safer in his second season in Raleigh, even with a 37-0 loss to Maryland in the season-finale with a bowl berth on the line.
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Spring issues: The popular question is who will be the quarterback, but the real question is who will play defense? There are only four returning starters, which actually might not be a bad thing considering State ranked 91st nationally in run defense, allowing more than 186 rushing yards per game, and 66th in total defense.
The Pack breaks in a new set of linebackers and safeties. Sophomore outside linebacker Nate Irving will make a lot plays and so will freshman Dwayne Maddox, who has the potential to be a four-year starter.
As for quarterback, Daniel Evans started the 2007 opener but was replaced by Harrison Beck, who started the next four games. Then Beck hurt his shoulder and Evans started the final seven games, winning four.
Neither was overwhelming, leaving the starting spot up in the air for the spring with Beck, Justin Burke and redshirt freshman Russell Wilson jockeying for position. Evans, who has the most experience, missed the spring recovering from surgery on his shoulder, which would help explain his performance against Maryland in the finale.
Freshman Mike Glennon, rated as the fifth-best quarterback in his high school class, will also be given a chance when practice begins in August.
Last year, O'Brien didn't announce his starter until the Monday before the opener. There's no reason to think this QB race couldn't go the same way this season. Of course, Evans was benched before halftime of the opener, so even if O'Brien makes a decision, it can change at anytime.
Evans, Beck and Burke are the knowns, while Wilson, undersized at 5-11 but with a live arm, is the wild card of the group. With an increased number of reps during spring practice, Wilson impressed the coaching staff with his talent and ability to make plays.
Fall outlook: The team, and offense in particular, will be better in its second season under O'Brien.
The running game, which ranked 110th nationally and only ahead of Duke in the ACC, should improve dramatically with the healthy return of backs Toney Baker and Andre Brown, not to mention tight end Anthony Hill, the team's best blocker.
After Brown's injury against FSU in the sixth game, Jamelle Eugene was responsible for the entire running game, when State ran — the Pack attempted at least 40 passes in each of the final six games.
Just as the 2007 team improved from the start of the season to the end, this one will get better as it understands what O'Brien wants. But the final record may not show just how much progress State makes. The Pack could be better and win five games again, or maybe six, but no more than seven.
The reason? This is the oddest schedule State has played in the past 15 years.
There are seven home games, including four straight, and two of the road games are in the Triangle (at UNC and at Duke), but other than William & Mary, there are no breaks, and that includes the date with Duke, whose series with State defies logic.
The three I-A nonconference games are South Carolina, ECU and South Florida.
In the conference, the Atlantic is stronger than the Coastal, which is a bad break because even though the Pack picked up Duke, it doesn't get a shot at rebuilding teams like Georgia Tech or Virginia.
There's no such thing as a perfect schedule, but given where State is as a program, this one doesn't leave much room for error.
There will be emotional games with ECU, Boston College, UNC, Duke and Wake. South Carolina and South Florida will open the season ranked in the Top 25 and then there are trips to Clemson and Maryland, two teams that beat State by a combined score of 79-20 last season.
That all adds up to a quest to add up to six wins by the last Saturday of November.
