Clemson and Maryland took one step closer to the NCAA Tournament with wins this weekend. With 7-4 conference records, the Tigers and Terps need two more ACC wins — in their final five chances — to virtually guarantee an NCAA bid (I know, Florida State fan, I know).
That would give the ACC four teams (with Duke and UNC) in the field of 65 with six teams with a mathematical chance of still playing their way to a 9-7 ACC record and into the Dance.
The selection committee uses the RPI, but it also goes by how a team performs in its last 10 games (conference record is also a factor). Basically, the committee will take team that's hot late over one that was hot early.
Here are the vitals for the six ACC teams competing to join the top four.
You'll note the record for the "Last 10" games doesn't add up to 10. The record is the cutoff for the final 10 regular-season games the selection committee will consider. Add the remaining games and the "Last 10" games to get the magic number.
ACC record: 6-5
RPI: 61
Remaining games (5): @ UNC, Maryland, @ Georgia Tech, @ Virginia Tech, N.C. State
Last 10: 3-2
Best non-ACC win: Brigham Young
Down the stretch: The Duke win helps, beating the No. 3 team in the RPI does that, but the closing schedule doesn't. The Deacs are a poor road team and three of their final five are away from Joel Coliseum, where they have a 14-1 record this season.
The good news is they logistically only have to steal one on the road to go 3-2 and get to nine ACC wins. The bad news is they have to beat Maryland, a team they matchup poorly with, at home.
Given the meteoric progress of freshman guard Jeff Teague, the Deacs have the best shot at being the ACC's fifth NCAA team.
ACC record: 5-6
RPI: 72
Remaining games (5): @ Maryland, Georgia Tech, Boston College, Wake, @ Clemson
Last 10: 2-3
Best non-ACC win: UNC-Asheville
Down the stretch: The real Virginia Tech — a rudderless inexperienced team swallowed whole in a 39-point loss —finally surfaced in Chapel Hill on Saturday which is a testament to both Seth Greenberg's coaching ability — that it took so long — and the unbalanced ACC schedule.
The Hokies have no business being 5-6 in the ACC, not with a freshmen backcourt and six freshmen among their top eight scorers but since they avoided double-dates with UNC and Duke — and they're inexplicably an exceptional home team (9-2) — they're a 4-1 finish away from returning to the NCAA Tournament.
They have to win all three at home, which is possible, and then find a win at either Maryland or Clemson, which doesn't appear possible, although they beat Maryland in Blacksburg on Jan. 12.
ACC record: 4-6
RPI: 81
Remaining games (6): Virginia, @ Virginia Tech, @ Duke, Wake, Clemson, @ Boston College
Last 10: 1-3
Best non-ACC win: Notre Dame
Down the stretch: Miracle is overused, but the Yellow Jackets would need something akin to one to close 5-1, seeing as how they haven't won five games in any six-game stretch all season.
ACC record: 4-6
RPI: 36
Remaining games (6): Duke, Maryland, @ Clemson, Virginia, Boston College, @ FSU
Last 10: 2-2
Best non-ACC win: Mississippi State
Down the stretch: The Canes' RPI remains healthy enough that 8-8 might get them to the tournament for the first time as an ACC member.
They're going to lose to Duke on Wednesday but they've been good against Maryland (they beat the Terps twice last season) and a sweep of the other four teams is not beyond the realm of possibility.
ACC record: 4-7
RPI: 60
Remaining games (5): UNC, @ Virginia, FSU, Duke, @ Wake
Last 10: 2-3
Best non-ACC win: Villanova
Down the stretch: The Boston College loss hurt, especially in light of the Eagles' performance against a pathetic Virginia team on Sunday. Then again, Sidney Lowe's second season will be remembered as a season of disappointing losses — New Orleans, ECU, @ UNC, @ BC — and not for any memorable wins, barring a sweep of UNC and Duke in the next two weeks.
It would be classic Wolfpack to beat UNC on Wednesday and then turn around and lose at Virginia on Sunday. Either way, the schedule doesn't lend itself to the Wolfpack finding four more wins.
With Arizona State beating Stanford on Thursday, the doomsday scenario of Herb Sendek coaching at the RBC Center in the NCAA Tournament while N.C. State toils in the NIT is getting closer and closer to reality.
ACC record: 4-7
RPI: 92
Remaining games (5): @ FSU, @ Virginia Tech, UNC, @ Miami, Georgia Tech
Last 10: 1-4
Best non-ACC win: Rhode Island
Down the stretch: The Virginia loss will haunt Al Skinner. That he almost took a completely flawed team with an undersized scoring guard and no supporting cast to the NCAA Tournament would have been the crowning achievement of his career.
Unless the Eagles close 5-0, he'll have to settle for an NIT appearance, which is still quite a coaching coup given his roster.
