Butch Davis audio

Basics

2006 record: 3-9, 2-6 ACC
Coach: Butch Davis (First season)
Offensive coordinator: John Shoop
Defensive coordinator: Chuck Pagano
Returning starters: offense (4), defense (4)

Plus

• Butch Davis can flat-out recruit. No one, not Pete Carroll or Bobby Bowden, can match the collection of NFL-quality talent that Davis stocked the Miami program with between 1998 and 2002. Davis left for the Cleveland Browns after the 2000 season but his players went 23-1 from 2001 to 2002 and won the national title.

In all Davis recruited or coached 28 first-round picks at The U. Let's put that in perspective. Davis was at Miami for six seasons. UNC has produced 16 first-round picks in its entire history.

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Even with a limited window for his first class, and with full Lennon-McCartney rights due to John Bunting, Davis landed one of the country's best freshmen classes at UNC, headlined by defensive tackle Marvin Austin.

• For the first time since Mack Brown's last game in 1997, there's a proven head coach in Chapel Hill, which provides immediate confidence and direction for a program that has had very little since Brown exited for Texas. Davis gives UNC a new start, a break from the Bunting/Carl Torbush Eras which were bogged down by continuous "will he or won't he be fired" questions.

• With just a little consistency from quarterback, sophomore Hakeem Nicks could be the best receiver in the ACC. He caught 39 passes and four touchdowns with a quarterback circus and an ankle injury which cost him a game. At 6-1, Nicks isn't huge or a speed burner, but he has an innate ability to come up with the ball and make a big play.

He'll have help in the passing game with the addition of freshmen receivers Greg Little, of Durham, and Rashad Mason. The return of tight end Richard Quinn, who missed last season with a shoulder injury, should give the receivers room on the outside. Bunting and his staff had big plans for Quinn, who's 6-4 and 250, before his injury. Remember, tight end was an integral part of Davis' offense at Miami.

• The defensive line got pushed around last season, allowing a league-high 172.8 rushing yards per game, but end Hilee Taylor was a bright spot. The real value of seniors Kyndraus Guy and Kentwan Balmer is they allow highly-touted freshmen Austin and Aleric Mullins a chance to rotate and not have to be on the field for every play.

• John Bunting's first non-conference schedule included road dates with No. 3-ranked Oklahoma and No. 4 Texas. Davis' toughest games out of the ACC are at home against South Carolina, and Steve Spurrier, and at South Florida. Good teams but not top-5 teams.

The league computer was kind enough to spare Davis dates with Florida State, Clemson and Boston College.

Minus

• While the quarterback situation gets the attention, the real problem for UNC is at running back. If Davis had returned to Miami in 2001, this is what his backfield depth chart would have been: Clinton Portis, Najeh Davenport, Willis McGahee, Jarrett Payton and Frank Gore. All five made the NFL, only Payton is not still in it and Portis and Gore have both made the Pro Bowl.

Let's compare that to UNC's depth chart: Richie Rich, Anthony Elzy, Ryan Houston and Justin Warren. Rich had one carry for minus-1 yard last season. Warren, who began his career as a walk-on, had seven for 77 yards. Elzy (redshirt) and Houston are freshmen.

"Just a little bit different," Davis admits in his current running back situation and the one he left at Miami. "As big of a challenge as it is to find the quarterback, this training camp is going to be big in trying to identify do we have one guy that can be the marquee running back or will it be running back by committee."

Houston certainly has the size at 6-2 and 245 pounds but whether he can produce, or will be given the chance to produce, remains to be seen.

• Davis has to decide to build his program with T.J. Yates or Mike Paulus at quarterback. Either way, neither has played a down of college football. Yates emerged as the starter in spring practice, supplanting Cam Sexton, who wasn't ready to be the starter in 2006 and struggled in sharing snaps with Joe Dailey, who has been moved to receiver.

Inexperience isn't the best quality in a quarterback but it's also not deal-breaker if the talent is there. The question Davis has to answer is which one has not only the talent but the wherewithal to handle what won't be an easy season.

• The Heels averaged 3.6 yards per carry last season which doesn't reflect well on the offensive line which loses its two best blockers Brian Chacos and Charleston Gray (who was kicked off the team). Their replacements, guard Bryan Bishop and tackle Kyle Jolly, have to be better run-blockers. Given UNC's problems at running back, that might not be possible.

• Linebackers Durell Mapp and Chase Rice made a lot of tackles six and seven yards down field. The group, especially without Larry Edwards, often played a step slow and was overwhelmed at the point of attack. That's not a good combo in a 4-3 defense designed for the linebackers to make plays.

Best-case scenario

• They go 5-7 if Yates does the smart thing and finds Nicks and Quinn as often as humanly possible, a running back emerges and the defense doesn't let every game turn into a track meet. James Madison is a given (right?) and if Davis continues Bunting's mastery of N.C. State and Duke, there might be two more wins to be found (Maryland, East Carolina).

Worst-case scenario

• They go 2-10 if the running game seems as bad as it does on paper, Yates and Paulus ride the same yo-yo Sexton and Dailey did last year and the defense gets charred six ways to Sunday. Then there's the reality that Tom O'Brien figures out that his roster is better than UNC's and the Heels could be so beat down mentally by Nov. 24 that even Duke poses a threat.

Realistic scenario

• They go 3-9 with the James Madison/Duke opener/closer combo and a Super Bowl over either Miami or Spurrier at Kenan.

What went right

• They beat State, again, for the third straight year, with inferior talent. Of course, the 23-9 win over State was Chuck Amato's Waterloo, but the Heels were more than happy to send Bunting out a winner in the series against a colleague he never really liked or could stand for that matter.

The one-point win the following week over Duke was just gravy for Bunting, who finished his career with half of his 18 ACC wins against his neighbors.

• As awkward as it was — and it defined awkward — by firing Bunting five games left in the season, UNC cut bait and was able to launch a full charge at an unemployed Davis.

• Kicker Connor Barth made all 10 of his field goals, including two from beyond 50 yards.

What went wrong

• Dailey's propensity for interceptions, especially in the wrong end of the field, sunk UNC's season the same week it started. Down 21-16 to Rutgers in the fourth quarter of the opener, Dailey drove the Heels to the Knights' 29-yard line only to throw a pass that looked like it was intended for the defense. A win there and both teams have different seasons, and Bunting still has his job.

Instead, Dailey ceded his full-time spot to Sexton, with a doomed rotation mixed throughout the season, and UNC's confidence on offense never recovered. It bottomed out with the 23-0 Thursday night loss to Virginia, which inspired Dick Baddour to axe Bunting before Halloween.

• Ronnie McGill was either not in shape or not healthy or a victim of a senseless rotation with the deposed Barrington Edwards — which one depends on your point of view. But McGill should have had more than 192 carries and 790 yards. His inability to dominate failed to alleviate pressure on the quarterbacks.

• The team slept through the second and third quarters. UNC was outscored 114 to 46 in the second and 91 to 46 in the third. Dean Smith, with his rules about the last 5 minutes of the first half and first 5 minutes of the second half, would not be proud.

08/10/07 at 12:49
Anthony Elzy was an outstanding running back from a solid HS football program here in my part of Ohio. He could be a pleasant surprise for the Tar Heels.

08/10/07 at 12:53
Also, I saw James Madison in the 1-AA playoffs last year against Youngstown State. They were a fast, impressive team that YSU was lucky to beat at home. I'm not sure how many seniors they had on last year's team, but if they return the nucleus this year, UNC had better be ready for a battle.

08/10/07 at 15:58
For some reason, I've got the feeling Davis would have this team as ready as it can be to play Notre Dame or a junior high team. I agree, though, this team has NOWHERE to go but up. I think they will go up, too. It's just a matter of when. It's probably not too good for this team to be so loaded with young talent. It hopefully will pay big dividens in the future. Whether it's week 6 or year 3 is still to be seen.

08/10/07 at 16:00
Man, there's not one senior on the offense. That's kind of exciting, and depressing. Especially for the offensive line.